Good Morning,
In Ukraine the war rages as Russia fires yet another missile salvo overnight in Kramatorsk injuring several civilians.
The Ukrainian deputy defence minister, Hanna Maliar, said Ukrainian forces had registered “a definite advance” on the southern flank of the eastern city of Bakhmut.
Ukraine’s counter offensive is playing out slowly, more slowly than even it thought possible, because Russian troops have spent months preparing and digging defensive lines that are heavily mined.
Almost a year and a half into this bloody conflict in Europe, all indications are this war will continue with Russia unwilling to withdraw or admit defeat, and Ukraine steadfast in it’s desire to fight on for years if necessary to push the Russian invaders forces out of their lands.
So the support of NATO, and it’s biggest contributor the U.S., remains critical in resupplying arms to Ukraine and guaranteeing Ukraine has the bullets and bombs to fight on.
U.S. President Joe Biden has landed in the U.K. on the way to a two day NATO summit in Lithuania.
America has announced it will supply Ukraine with cluster munitions, despite an outcry against the weapons from human rights groups and some Governments.
The munitions which detonate multiple explosions over enemy positions, like a hard rain of grenades, also result in unexploded ordinance that fail to explode in soft or wet ground.
Russian cluster munitions reportedly have a ‘dud rate’ of 40%, meaning large numbers remain a hazard on the ground, whereas the average dud rate is believed to be close to 20%.
The Pentagon estimates its own cluster bomblets have a dud rate of less than 3%.
But Ukraine reportedly needs cluster arms to crowbar the dug-in Russians out of lines of trenches as it runs low on artillery shells. Desperate times call for desperate measures says the U.S.
The NATO summit won’t give Ukraine membership in the alliance, but it will again present promises Ukraine will one day be part of NATO.
There is palpable disappointment by Ukraine’s leadership, which wants to pull NATO closer into guaranteeing it’s sovereignty.
France, the UK, and others want a more aggressive guarantee for Ukraine, and to make it clearer that NATO will eventually accept Ukraine, and even the U.S. President has changed his views on Ukraine belonging in NATO, but Biden sees that process as a long road.
I would be wrong to write the NATO summit won’t change much, because there are important shifts in western views on Ukraine and Russia.
And even movement on Turkey’s block on Sweden joining NATO sooner, as Biden will push President Erdogan to allow Sweden in.
Europe now, more than ever, sees Ukraine as the vital roadblock to stop Russian notions of reestablishing some kind of empire, so the support for Ukraine seems to be unwavering.
That view that Ukraine is and always be part of Europe, will be voiced in the strongest terms possible at the NATO summit, as it should be.
Because maybe, if NATO leaders had spoken more clearly in the first place, the invasion of Ukraine would never have happened in the first place.
Dana Lewis