Good Morning,
The scenario of Russia or Ukraine, sabotaging a nuclear power plant in Ukraine, is so frightening it’s hard to take fathom.
But increasingly the chatter from Ukraine is becoming a roar, as officials including President Zelenskiy warn an explosion may be imminent.
Russia has occupied the 6 reactor nuclear plant since February of 2022, and both sides have accused the other of cutting power to the facilities cooling pumps by shelling to or from the plant in the past.
Now, Zelenskiy has told French President Macron, that Ukrainian intelligence has evidence the Russians have placed objects on the roof of several reactors to simulate a Ukrainian attack on the facility.
And the Ukrainian President issues similar warnings last week in meetings with the Spanish Prime Minister.
Russia has also made counter claims that Ukraine wants to attack the facility and plans to do so tonight.
Renat Karchaa, an adviser to the head of Rosenergoatom, which operates Russia’s nuclear network, said Ukraine planned to drop ammunition laced with nuclear waste transported from another of the country’s five nuclear stations on the plant.
“Under cover of darkness overnight on 5 July the Ukrainian military will try to attack the Zaporizhzhia station using long-range precision equipment and kamikaze attack drones,” Russian news agencies quoted Karchaa as telling Russian television.
When Russia names a date and time for an attack, you can usually bet it intends to create a false flag narrative for an operation it is planning, but regardless you have to take it all seriously.
Experts at the UN agency in charge of nuclear safety, the IAEA say a Chernobyl like meltdown would likely not occur at Zaporizhzhia, if the explosions only damaged a cooling pond, but there could be radiation if vents were open to release radiation.
In his nightly video message, Zelenskiy said Russia was planning to “simulate an attack” on the plant. “But in any case, the world sees – and cannot fail to see – that the only source of danger to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is Russia. And no one else.”
What would be Russia’s motive for destroying part of the largest nuclear plant in Europe? It may be to make parts of Zaporizhzhia uninhabitable and to slow Ukraines counter offensive in the area, much as the destruction of the nearby Nova Kakhovka dam, June 8th.
As of last week Russia started reducing the number of it’s soldiers at the facility, and told plant workers to relocate from the area.
The scene appears to be set for something to go bang at Zaporizhzhia, and like I said at the beginning, it’s hard to fathom any Government would be reckless enough to gamble with nuclear safety, but we are on the brink.
One closing note - if radiation were to contaminate a neighbouring nation, that would clearly be interpreted by NATO members as an attack, and one which brings into play article 5, an attack on one is an attack on all.
NATO would potentially have to debate a collective military response to a Zaporizhzhia disaster.
Dana Lewis