U.S. President Biden called Vladimir Putin a “crazy son SOB” at a fund raising event last week, but to put that label on the Russian leader is a strategic mistake.
Putin doesn’t care what we think of him, and the more unpredictable he appears, and maybe even a bit crazy, serves his purposes in Ukraine. But he threatens us with clear headed and not so crazy threats.
Putin fears western escalation of arms, and of course direct NATO involvement in Ukraine, so the only threat he has is a nuclear one to intimidate and cause worry.
Today he played the nuclear card once again, as he gears up for his election for President in March, a staged affair where Russians pretend they had a choice, and the Kremlin pretends it gave them one.
But we all know the Russian elections are staged managed, stale affairs, where Putin is vaunted as trustworthy leader in Kremlin controlled media, and then electronically will get 75 to 85% of the vote to keep driving his country in reverse. (The joke is Putin often gets 110% of votes in some regions where extra ballots are stuffed in boxes for insurance)
In his annual state-of-the-nation address today, Putin made an apparent reference to French President Macrons statement earlier this week that the future deployment of Western ground troops to Ukraine can’t be “ruled out”.
Putin warned that it would lead to “tragic” consequences for the countries who decide to do that.
And he then talked up his nuclear forces and warned NATO leaders what they might face if they waded into a ground war in Ukraine.
Putin emphasized that Russia’s nuclear forces are in “full readiness,” saying that the military has deployed potent new weapons including the new Sarmat heavy intercontinental ballistic missile that has entered service with Russian nuclear forces, along with the Burevestnik atomic-powered cruise missile and the Poseidon atomic-powered, nuclear-armed drone.
Are we heading for a nuclear showdown with Russia?
Not as far as anyone can see including Russian military leaders, who have nuclear doctrine calling for nukes only if Russia faced an existential threat.
The fact is, it is Ukraine that faces existential threats from invading Russian forces, and Putin’s aim to restore some kind of empire rooted in wobbly fictional accounts of history.
Putin’s nuclear threats are well thought out from a leader playing military chess with Europe and America, all designed to shake commitments for a free Ukraine.
Putin wants us all to ask “is supporting Ukraine” really worth the risk?
The West has only to ignore them, and get serious in providing arms to Ukraine to repel Russian invaders who have suffered horrible casualty numbers in 2 years of war, and proven the Russian army can’t fight well enough to hold more than 18% of eastern Ukraine.
The Russian army is a blunt floundering instrument of a Kremlin in dire need of a new leader, and a country thirsting for change that will take Russia back towards normalcy and bring peace to Europe, replacing Putin’s decades of pointless chaos.