Good Morning,
President Putin has never been seen to be less in control, and more vulnerable as a leader than he does today.
He has lost his grip on power in Russia, and the country wallowing in a ill conceived war in Ukraine is in danger of losing its out of touch head of State and plunging into chaos.
Last night Putin addressed his nation after essentially hiding over the weekend from an attempted rebellion that has shocked the world, and his own people reeling from the events of the last few days.
Speaking on TV, a seemingly angry Putin said the uprising was ‘doomed to fail’ and that ‘its organizers, even though they lost their sense of right and wrong, couldn’t have failed to realize that”.
While the so called leader of the mutiny, Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin issued an audio recording denying his take-over of the army command in Rostov, and a march that stopped short of Moscow, was a protest because of an attack on his forces in Ukraine by the Russian MOD.
A march that downed several Russian aircraft killing crew members.
"We felt that the demonstration of what we were going to do was enough. And our decision to turn back was influenced by two most important factors:” said Prigozhin.
"The first factor was that we did not want to shed Russian blood.
"The second factor was that we were going for a demonstration of our protest, not to overthrow the government in the country."
Now if you are a Russia sitting in Moscow or anywhere else, what do you think just happened? Well if you drink the propaganda from Russian TV you will know there was an attempted coup and the your great leader Putin disappeared for several days.
And when Putin appeared late, he promised justice and then offered to let the coup leader, flee to Belarus and further that his soldiers also were offered a deal to go free in return for calling it off.
You can’t help but think Putin is not the guy you thought he was for allowing Wagner to ever get strong enough to threaten the state, and for disappearing when the danger approached Moscow.
And now you may know that the war in Ukraine is going no where and those who fight it are coming back potentially pointing their weapons at the Kremlin.
Where does this go from here?
Not clear. But the notion members of Wagner will simply sign up and sign onto the ragtag regular Russian army is fiction.
Some may appear at bases reportedly being built for them in Belarus. Others will go home or continue to follow Prigozhin where ever he may lead.
Prigozhin may have a bullseye on his forehead painted by Putin, but I think we are naive to think the mercenary leader is completely vulnerable to assassination.
There is no way Wagner made up of former army commandos including elite members of SVR/GRU and allowed to exist and possibly funded by the Russian Security Service FSB, didn’t have internal support as it marched towards Moscow.
At the very least, dissatisfied members of Putin’s security services, and army, and even some members of his security council, seemed in their silenced to look the other way as Prigozhin was cheered on the street in Rostov-On-Don, and occupied the army headquarters.
We don’t know the depths of Prigozhin’s support but he was very close to Putin, and for months has enjoyed support at the highest state levels, even as he criticized the army bosses and even accused them of betraying Russia in their bungled campaign in Ukraine.
His latest statements included accusations the war was launched in a shroud of lies to Putin, by Defense Chief Shoigu for criminal intent, with the Wagner boss admitting NATO and Ukraine never had plans to attack Russia and the war should never have been launched.
Prigozhin may have gone too far this time, but while his Wagner group is still a force, and he is still in command, to say this drama is over clearly is premature.
Only Act one, Scene one in the internal struggle for power in Putin’s mafia state called Russia.
Dana