Russian Advance In Ukraine
A Russian victory in the meat grinder ground war in Eastern Ukraine?
Bakhmut, Ukraine isn’t one of those places most people who ever hear about, except for the fact it has been the epicenter of months of WW1 era, desperate trench warfare fighting, between Russian and Ukrainian forces.
It now appears Russia may be finally claiming the largely destroyed city and advancing beyond it.
Social media reports from Russian sources indicate Russian forces have taken Bakhmut and are advancing further into Soledar where retreating Ukrainian soldiers were trying to regroup, and were in danger of being surrounded.
Ukrainian leaders has so far not confirmed the fall of Bakhmut so these reports have to be framed with that caution, but it would appear Russia advanced in the last 24 hours.
Bakhmut is not strategic gem, except for the fact Russia has been determined to take the holdout pocket in the Donbas and it became a test of will between defending Ukrainians and determined advancing Russian forces.
The fall of Bakhmut is a dose of reality for those cheerleading a Ukrainian victory, without fully appreciating Russian’s determination to claim all of eastern Ukraine.
Just this week the UK Ministry of Defence said that it is "unlikely" that Kremlin forces will achieve a significant breakthrough near Bakhmut in the coming weeks.
It also tells us something about Russia’s operational upper hand in terms of troop numbers in Ukraine, and how Putin will keep throwing soldiers into harms way, with little regard to losses.
Hundreds of Russian troops have died taking Bakhmut led by the private military firm Wagner and it’s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who has been touted by some as a potential Putin replacement.
Prigozhin is interested in taking control of salt and gypsum from mines near Bakhmut, according to a White House official.
And we are only at the beginning of this war, if you consider Putin’s determination to likely have his troops fight on in Ukraine for years if necessary although he only speaks in terms of months more.
There are strong rumours Russia will soon announce another troop mobilization, that could be as large as 500 thousand men to fight in Ukraine. Ukraine’s Deputy Intelligence Chief Vadym Skibitsky, the conscripts would be part of a series of Russian offensives over spring and summer 2023.
Weapons to Ukraine are vitally important, and time is critical for those weapons to effect the battlefield.
Two key developments to note in that context;
-A new U.S. weapons package for Ukraine will include about 50 Bradley Fighting Vehicles, worth roughly $2.8 billion
-Republican Kevin McCarthy has finally won the Speaker position in the U.S. Congress after 14 defeats. McCarthy has supported aid to Ukraine but also called for more oversight and said a Republican House won’t provide a blank check to Ukraine
And finally if you were wondering how that Orthodox Christmas ceasefire of President Putin’s went? There wasn’t one.
There was plenty of fighting and Putin’s troops (who constantly broke ceasefires in Syria), fought on in Ukraine as the Ukrainian’s themselves rejected any ceasefire call saying it was a weak publicity stunt by the Kremlin.