Good day from London,
It wasn’t just another air attack on Ukraine by Russia over night, but a calculated heavy air assault targeting mostly Kyiv, and it was unsuccessful according to Ukrainian military.
Russia fired 18 missiles, including the much hypersonic 9 Kinzhal missiles, and the Ukrainians report all were shot down say Ukrainian military sources.
The missile attacks came from different directions, and were well coordinated in a near simultaneous assault.
UPDATE - The Russians claimed to have taken out the Patriot system while U.S. reports indicate it was damaged and not destroyed.
The strategy by Russia is increasingly targeting Kyiv, the Ukrainian Capital City, but the air defences appear to be holding, although the Patriot systems are now a large target for Russia, and there are only two of these systems in Ukraine.
And more air defences are being supplied to Ukraine covering other territories, in an attempt to neutralize Russia’s superior launch platforms, whether that be sea or air launched. (ie submarines and bombers)
The results, had the missiles gotten through, would have been devastating, echoing many other attacks which hit civilian areas, including apartment buildings.
It should be noted while Ukraine says it shot down incoming missiles, it didn’t at first admit the Patriot had been hit.
Ukrainian officials have also not commented on Russia reports some of those missiles hit Ukrainian troops "Large-caliber artillery of battlegroup South has struck clusters of manpower of the Ukrainian forces near the populated localities of Artyomovsk, Minkovo, Kurakhovo and Gornyak," said a Russian military official.
In his words, “a missile formation of the southern battlegroup also struck temporary deployment positions of battalions from Ukraine’s 24th and 57th separate mechanized brigades”, which presumably are gathering for the coming counter attack mission to retake territories occupied by Russia.
Ukraine’s President Zelensky has managed to secure more weapons pledges from European leaders after a lighting tour to London, Paris on Sunday evening to meet French President Emmanuel Macron, after trips to Germany and Italy, where he met those countries’ leaders and Pope Francis.
Germany pledged 3 billion more in arms, while the UK has offered to start training Ukrainian pilots on aircraft, but has stopped short of promising airplanes. (One has to wonder where that leads, surely to aircraft being pledged if the war continues, and Ukraine wants F16’s).
Britain has promised more ammo and has already moved to give Ukraine long range cruise missiles called the Storm Shadow, which can take out buildings, air defences and Russian armour.
It’s only ‘long range’ in the sense that until now Ukraine has only had the American HIMARS with a 50 mile range. The U.S. hasn’t said yes to ATACM’s which could give a range of 180 miles to Ukraine’s forces.
The British Storm Shadows have a range of 150 miles which will reach much deeper into Russian enemy lines than before.
Where is the war going?
Zelensky has said the Ukrainian counter offensive is still not ready, but says it will be soon. That seems to be a period of weeks not months and the target of that offensive will no doubt be south eastern Ukraine in the direction of Melitopol and/or Berdiansk.
If Ukraine can gain those territories back, it will effectively cut the land bridge to the Crimea which Russia has occupied and claimed to have annexed since 2014.
The Kerch Bridge, which connects Crimea to Russia could also be attacked, and vital supply lines to forward positioned Russian troops, severed.
Russia too has been preparing land defences, and promising to punish advancing Ukrainian forces.
A successful offensive could bring about a total collapse of the Russian army in Ukraine, and threaten the Putin regime in Moscow.
And failure, will test the will of the West and long term support for Ukraine.
So much at stake in a critical test of wills on the battlefield, coming soon…
Dana Lewis