If the media is guilty of a target lock on weapons supplies to Ukraine, ie Leopard tanks from Germany, it’s largely driven by the Ukrainian Government.
The Ukrainians have been crying out for hard armour, as well as other things like air defence and even aircraft.
And Fridays meeting of 50 defence chiefs in Ramstein Germany, did in fact yield a huge shopping list of new weapons for Ukraines defensive efforts.
-Finland announced $433 million military aid package, its largest to date, including heavy artillery and munitions
-The US released a list of $2.5 billion worth of supplies, including Bradley fighting vehicles, armoured personnel carriers, air defence systems, and tens of thousands of rockets and artillery rounds
-Britain announced it would send 600 Brimstone missiles
-Denmark said it would donate 19 French-made Caesar howitzers
-Sweden promised its Archer artillery system
But Germany’s decision to not release the Leopards yet to Ukraine, stole the headlines from the Ukraine contact group Friday, but like all news headlines you have to look for the Back Story to fully understand why.
The German Government coalition is split over the issue, so there is an internal debate inside Germany. Polls have not shown German’s are in favour of sending armour to Ukraine.
But no one has really come up with a good reason why the Germans are hesitating. There are some complexities like the fact many of Germany’s tanks it might send are in need of repair work and they may not be ready until the end of the year.
But of course there are more than 2000 Leopards outside of Germany that countries like Poland want to send now but need Germany’s permission because of export licensing.
"Arming Ukraine in order to repel the Russian aggression is not some kind of decision-making exercise. Ukrainian blood is shed for real," Poland's Minister of Foreign Affairs Zbigniew Rau said. "This is the price of hesitation over Leopard deliveries. We need action, now."
I believe reading between the lines of statements coming out of Fridays contact group meeting, that it’s inevitable Germany will send the tanks. The criticism of Germany and it’s delayed decision making couldn’t be more sharp or public.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who attended the defence ministers meeting dashed Ukrainian hopes of receiving Leopards, saying that "we all cannot say today when a decision will come and what it will look like,".
Though, he said that he had instructed the German military to review its inventory of Leopard battle tanks so it can "act quickly" if a decision is eventually reached.
Germany certainly doesn’t want to be seen to escalate the situation with Russia, and at one point wanted the Americans to provide their tanks instead, or in parallel.
But the U.S. heavy M-1 Abrams run on jet fuel, not diesel like the Leopards, so they are harder to maintain and deploy for Ukraine.
And the ‘heavy’ part is notable, as the Abrams (I rode on one into Kosovo as a reporter) is 70 tons compared to the lighter Leopards weighing in at roughly 40 tons each.
I can tell you the sea of maintenance parts and fuel trucks which accompanied U.S. tanks into Iraq, was an incredible sight to behold, and Ukraine simply couldn’t manage that resupply mission say experts.
The Leopards are the tanks right for the job, of forcing the Russian’s out of Ukraine as the war progresses.
US president Joe Biden stated after an event on Friday night that “Ukraine is going to get all the help they need,” in response to a question about the tanks.
CIA Dir. Burns
I never like to ‘bury the lead’ as we say in the news business, but I may have here. The fairly secret visit of U.S. CIA Director William Burns to Kyiv this week, to directly brief President Zelensky wasn’t just to have a bowl of borscht.
The information Burns passed to Zelensky, must have been so sensitive it couldn’t be handled by anyone but Burns, and may have concerned Russian preparations for a new offensive against Ukraine, among other things.
The Burns-Zelensky secret meeting is curious in its timing and smacks of a looming danger for Ukraine.
Russian Offensive
Russia announced this weekend a new offensive in the Zaporizhia region in south-east Ukraine. Russian forces claimed to have taken “more advantageous lines and positions” during the assault.
The South is what matters if Ukraine means to attack Crimea and cut off the life line of Russian troops operating in the South. That’s a critical phase of this war to watch.
Wagner Group
The United States has now designated the Russian private military group Wagner as a significant transnational criminal organization, a move that will restrict the number nations and institutions that can be prevented from doing business with the company.
“Our message to any company that is considering providing support to Wagner is simply Wagner is a criminal organization that is committing widespread human rights abuses,” said John Kirby, the White House national security spokesman.
It comes as the U.S. also revealed satellite photos showing rail traffic from North Korea to Russia, carrying missiles and rockets.
Long War
The U.S. has already suggested Ukraine won’t easily push Russia out of the east of the country easily in 2023. So this war will grind forward for many months to come barring a surprise on the battle field or in the Kremlin.
Whose side is time on or against in this war?
Ukraine needs the Western coalition of support to weather many storms, and with an American election looming in 2024, the politics of supplying arms to Ukraine from the U.S. and Europe can be full of difficulties.
Russia itself is being tested by sanctions that bite harder by the week and month, while it also struggling to bring more weapons assembly lines on line while running low on many munitions.
Putin thinks the West will tire, but the longer this war drags on the greater the odds his inner circle could fracture and turn on him.
Everything is at play in Ukraine so anyone who tells you they know how this will end, is a fool.
Have a good weekend everyone.
Dana
-wagner / n koren photos weapons shipments