‘Op Sec’ or Operational Security is a closely held, critical playing card for the Ukrainian leadership, as it gets ready to pull the trigger on it’s widely advertised spring offensive to recapture territories claimed by Russia.
There is very little detail on what direction the Ukrainians will take in attacking Russian troops, now occupying a large swath of eastern Ukraine, but the notion there will be just one ‘lane of attack’, or all of it will be simultaneous, is naive.
Ukraine military planners will have a series of counter strikes planned, including some which will be what boxers call a ‘fade’ or deception to lure Russian forces into believing the main thrust of the battle will come in a different direction.
Looking at the map of Russian held areas in Ukraine you can see big centres with names like Chernihiv, and Kherson that are clearly in the cross hairs, as is territory linking the illegally annexed Russian peninsula of Crimea with Russia proper.
I believe it is likely Ukraine at first won’t get bogged down trying to take urban centres which can be long and difficult fights, but will rather attempt to cut off those Russian troops from resupply from the rear, and begin to shape the battle field long term for Russian defeat.
Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Friday “preparations are coming to an end,” and outside observers note that roughly 95% of the equipment delivered to Ukraine by the West is now locked and loaded an ready to deploy.
On the Russia side it’s worth noting there are now more troops inside Ukraine than there were in the initial invasion of Feb 2020. But the fact most of the areas are frozen shows the inept fighting ability of the Russian forces.
The Russian Airforce and Navy is of course largely intact but not accomplishing much more than striking civilian targets inside Ukraine.
Russia has also been quietly preparing for the Ukrainian counter offensive digging in especially in the south near Crimea to defend the territories President Putin has attempted to annex.
The counter offensive is critical in so far it will test the resolve of key countries including the U.S. supplying weapons to Ukraine. While success will pave the road to more not less support for Ukraine, and failures will potentially position Ukraine to come to some kind of ceasefire and potential territorial compromise with the Kremlin.
There’s a lot riding on Ukraine’s spring offensive, but it’s soldiers have the will to fight and retake land stolen by the Russians.
This is not a war launched against Nazi’s despite what Russian tells it’s own people. Nor is it a war to fight back NATO because Ukraine wasn’t in NATO, and no one threatened Russia’s borders.
This was and is some kind of insane notion of Putin and his inner circle of renewing the Russian Empire, and controlling independent nations which broke away in the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Ukraine’s ability to hold ground has been proven over more than a year of brutal conflict. And Kyiv’s desire to retake lost ground shouldn’t be underestimated.
It may be this counteroffensive results in a Korea scenario, where the Ukrainians fight to ‘retake it all’ fail, and a standoff brings about some kind of International ceasefire line, with all money bet on a long term Russian fail, that will only be brought about by a regime change and Putin’s death a decade more or less from now.
Or Ukraine’s military will show just how unmotivated and unwilling Russia’s troops are to fight to hold onto territory they don’t ultimately care to fight and die for.
Regardless the fight will a bloody showdown, with so much at stake for Europe, because it will potentially shape Russia’s thirst for influence and dominance for years to come.
And we can’t help but hope for Ukraine’s success to beat back the bully from the Kremlin, who if not stopped here, will have to be fought where, next?
Dana Lewis