Good morning,
After almost 2 months of probing attacks by Ukraine against Russia occupied front lines, the big counter offensive appears to have been unleashed.
Thousands of Ukrainian forces, trained by the west, and now armed with their best gear, are pouring into the south east, trying to break Russia’s dug in positions which form a land bridge to occupied Crimea.
Pentagon officials have been leaking “this is the big test”.
Russian defence officials have reported a “massive assault” is unfolding south of the town of Orikhiv, an area held by Russia 60 miles north of the sea of Azov.
Also under seige was the Russian-held village of Robotyne, and the major Ukrainian objectives are the heavily fortified city of Tokmak, and beyond, Melitopol, near the coast.
Melitopol’s liberation from Russian forces would be a huge prize for the slowly advancing Ukrainian battle force.
There are reports Ukrainian officials have told their American contacts, the operation could take one to three weeks, focused on severing the land bridge between Crimea and Russian occupied lands to the east.
Ukraine has had some success in several areas clearing mine fields and trenches and sense a ‘break through’ opportunity.
The clock may be ticking on this war. I will write more in the coming weeks but there are whispers of insiders in American decision making, exploring a imposed cease fire.
******My sources tell me we could see open discussions in 4 or 5 months time to stop the war, as in a North-South Korea style armistice******
Those whispers will grow louder, depending on how this increased tempo in Ukrainian attacks to dislodge Russian occupiers succeed or fail in August.
Ironically this week marks 70 years since the Korean Peninsula stopped the fighting which killed or injured millions from 1950-53. It was an armistice which never developed into a peace treaty.
North Korea is preparing to stage huge celebrations with thousands of citizens to commemorate the armistice it sees as a victory in the “Grand Fatherland Liberation War.”
And tensions between the two Korea’s has been growing with increased missile testing by the north and large military exercises by the south.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to discuss military issues and the regional security environment, state media said Thursday.
The Russian‘s are in North Korea, likely to request arms for their fight in Ukraine and possibly offer assistance to North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.
Of course the talks are secret.
A few notable sub-texts in the Russian Ukraine war;
-The EU has announced a ban on battlefield equipment and aircraft parts to Belarus, because of it’s involvement in helping the Russian war effort
-Russia’s Africa Summit in St. Petersburg is notable for the fact only 17 African leaders are attending
-Russia has said it’s impossible for it to return to the grain deal, and it’s exit has endangered grain exports from Ukraine as has Russia’s missile strike on Ukrainian grain storage facilities in Odesa and elsewhere
-NATO condemned Russia's "dangerous" moves to block Ukrainian grain exports in the Black Sea, after urgent consultations with Kyiv
I am on holidays this week, but will write as the situation demands.
If you want one to one consultation on the war in Ukraine, and Russia feel free to reach out to me directly.
Dana Lewis